Volume 2, Nomor 1, Januari 2022
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SPASIAL AUTOCORRELATION ANALYSIS ON CORONAVIRUS
TRANSMISSION IN EAST JAVA 2020
Alda Natasya Hutabarat
Airlangga University, Indonesia
E-mail: aldanatasya118@gmail.com
Diterima:
26 Desember
2021
Direvisi:
08 Januari 2022
Disetujui:
15 Januari 2022
Abstrak
Latar Belakang :
Covid-19 telah menyebar ke seluruh dunia
dan telah memakan banyak korban jiwa, termasuk di sekitar
Jawa Timur, Indonesia. Berdasarkan laporan resmi, terdapat
84.152 kasus terkonfirmasi covid-19 sepanjang tahun 2020.
Meski di Jawa Timur terdapat banyak kasus, namun terdapat
perbedaan jumlah kasus terkonfirmasi di setiap kabupaten dan
kota.
Tujuan :
Jurnal ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui
pemetaan variasi spasial sistematis pada kasus konfirmasi
covid-19 di Jawa Timur tahun 2020.
Metode :
Dengan
menggunakan Moran Scatterplot dan Local Index Spatial
Autocorrelation, ditemukan beberapa clustered area kasus
konfirmasi covid-19 yang signifikan dengan I= 0,353.
Hasil :
Di daerah Tinggi terdapat kecamatan Sidoarjo, kota Surabaya,
kabupaten Gresik kabupaten Ponorogo, kabupaten Madiun,
kabupaten Magetan, kabupaten Ngawi, kota Madiun.
Kesimpulan : Artinya daerah-daerah tersebut perlu mendapat
perhatian lebih karena daerah tersebut memiliki korelasi dengan
daerah sekitarnya.
Kata kunci: Covid-19, Kasus terkonfirmasi
,
Jawa Timur
Abstract
Background :
Covid-19 telah menyebar ke seluruh dunia dan
telah memakan banyak korban jiwa, termasuk di sekitar Jawa
Timur, Indonesia. Berdasarkan laporan resmi, terdapat
84.152 kasus terkonfirmasi covid-19 sepanjang tahun 2020.
Di Jawa Timur terdapat banyak kasus, namun terdapat
perbedaan jumlah kasus terkonfirmasi di setiap kabupaten
dan kota.
Purpose :
This journal aims to find out systematic
spatial variations in confirmed cases of covid-19 in East Java
in 2020.
Method:
By using the Moran Scatterplot and Local
Index Spatial Autocorrelation, several confirmed cases of
COVID-19 were found in the cluster area which was
significant with I = 0.353.
Results :
In the Tinggi area, there
are Sidoarjo sub-districts, Surabaya city, Gresik district,
Ponorogo district, Madiun district, Magetan district, Ngawi
district, Madiun city
. Conclusion : This means that these areas
need more attention because these areas have a correlation with
the surrounding area.
Keywords: Covid-19, Confirmed Cases
,
East Java
Spasial Autocorrelation Analysis On Coronavirus
Transmission In East Java 2020
2022
Alda Natasya Hutabarat 70
Introduction
Spatial autocorrelation analysis is used to determine the correlation between
observed areas by specified characteristic (Blazquez, Picarte, Calderón, & Losada, 2018).
According to Tobler (1970), the first law of geography is ‘everything is related to
everything else, but near thing are more related than distant thing’. Meaning, some areas
had more influence with the nearer areas rather than distant areas (Huang et al., 2018).
Spatial correlation can be also used to identify which area that has influenced by its
surrounding area. This analysis is very useful in determined variables such as infectious
disease, program successful percentage, etc (Ahmadi, Sharifi, Dorosti, Ghoushchi, &
Ghanbari, 2020).
Coronavirus disease is a new type of coronavirus (SARS-Cov-2) which is also
known as Covid-19 (Rafiee et al., 2021). This infectious disease spread primarily through
droplets of saliva or discharge from the nose of an infected person. So this virus can be
easily transmitted from one person to another (Xu et al., 2020).
Coronavirus was first detected in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. Since then, there
were many countries affected by this virus (Park, Thwaites, & Openshaw, 2020). Since
then, this disease had created an outbreak resulting a pandemic. In Indonesia, the first case
of a Covid-19 infected person discovered in March 2020. The virus then transmitted
through all the provinces in Indonesia, including East Java (Purwanto et al., 2021).
East Java became the second most infectious province in Indonesia by the end of
year 2020 (Gesmalah & Hidajah, 2021). According to statistic result, there were 84.152
confirmed cases in East Java during that time and there 5.827 death confirmed. With the
ones that have recovered were 72.135 cases and 6.190 were still getting treated (Oey &
Bangun, 2020). This data showed how easily this disease spread across the province within
less than a year (Zhong et al., 2020).
Table 1.
Confirmed cases in each districts and cities in East Java 2021
Districts/cities
Confirmed cases
Population
Pacitan district
759
586.110
Ponorogo district
1.240
949.318
Trenggalek district
1.039
731.125
Tulungagung district
1.354
1.089.775
Blitar district
1.821
1.223.745
Kediri district
2.415
1.635.294
Malang district
1.481
2.654.448
Lumajang district
2.412
1.119.251
Jember district
4.438
2.536.729
Banyuwangi district
4.099
1.708.114
Bondowoso district
1.504
776.151
Situbondo district
1.704
685.967
Probolinggo district
2.213
1.152.537
Pasuruan district
2.191
1.605.969
Sidoarjo district
7.980
2.082.801
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Mojokerto district
1.487
1.119.209
Jombang district
2.319
1.318.062
Nganjuk district
1.097
1.103.902
Madiun district
390
744.350
Magetan district
944
670.812
Ngawi district
590
870.057
Bojonegoro district
1.287
1.301.635
Tuban district
1.790
1.198.012
Lamongan district
1.731
1.344.165
Gresik district
4.163
1.311.215
Bangkalan district
1.000
1.060.377
Sampang district
519
969.694
Pamekasan district
770
850.057
Sumenep district
1.205
1.124.436
Kediri city
718
286.796
Blitar city
667
149.149
Malang city
4.163
843.810
Probolinggo city
1.462
239.649
Pasuruan city
1.002
208.006
Mojokerto city
1.026
132.434
Madiun city
404
195.175
Surabaya city
18.164
2.874.314
Batu city
1.043
213.046
Source: Central Statistics Agency (BPS) 2020
Districts in East Java was remotely similar in some characteristic, like cultures and
tribes (Pattinama, 2018). However, there were differences that can be found in the districts
and cities amount of confirmed covid-19 cases For example, Surabaya city with 18.164
confirmed cases and Sidoarjo district with 7.980 confirmed cases. Even though these areas
were near each other, there were significant difference with the amount of confirmed cases
happened (Hellewell et al., 2020). However there were also neighboring areas that had
relatively similar amount covid-19 confirmed cases like Probolinggo district with 2.213
confirmed cases and Pasuruan district 2.191 confirmed cases. This journal would find if
there were significant clustering between East Java cities and districts covid-19 confirmed
cases in year 2020 (Purwanto et al., 2021). The use spatial autocorrelation in this journal is
to determine the mapping systematic spatial variation on confirmed cases of Covid-19 in
East Java 2020 (Dhewantara et al., 2021).
Research methods
The type of analysis used in the journal is Morgan’i univariate autocorrelation spatial
analysis to determine the correlation between confirmed Covid-19 cases districts in East
Java. Data collection technique used was secondary data that are obtained from cases report
in the government official website. The observed units in this journal were all districts and
Spasial Autocorrelation Analysis On Coronavirus
Transmission In East Java 2020
2022
Alda Natasya Hutabarat 72
cities in East Java, Indonesia. This analysis used SPSS application and Geoda application
to calculate Morgan’i univariate, LISA and also the mapping.
Results and Discussion
Moran scatterplot is resulted by Univariate Local Moran’s I calculation with Queen
contiguity in Geoda app.
Picture 1. Moran Scatterplot covid-19 confirmed cases in East Java 2020
The result of Moran’s scatterplot shows that Moran’s I = 0,353. positive result means
that most areas are in I quadran or III quadran. While number 0,353 shows how strong the
spatial autocorrelation is.
Table 2.
LISA Univariate test result of confirmed cases Covid-19 on East Java 2020
No
Districts/cities
li
P-value
Significant
1
Pacitan district
-0,0953
0,1536
not significant
2
Ponorogo district
0,0652
0,0023
significant
3
Trenggalek district
0,0654
0,1655
not significant
4
Tulungagung district
-0,0885
0,2543
not significant
5
Blitar district
0,0243
0,3617
not significant
6
Kediri district
0,0327
0,4654
not significant
7
Malang district
0,0762
0,2452
not significant
8
Lumajang district
-0,0967
0,3574
not significant
9
Jember district
0,0795
0,3643
not significant
10
Banyuwangi district
0,0396
0,2375
not significant
11
Bondowoso district
-0,0595
0,3263
not significant
12
Situbondo district
0,0654
0,4313
not significant
13
Probolinggo district
-0,0762
0,4321
not significant
14
Pasuruan district
-0,0578
0,3152
not significant
15
Sidoarjo district
0,0326
0,0323
significant
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16
Mojokerto district
-0,0565
0,4543
not significant
17
Jombang district
0,0765
0,4627
not significant
18
Nganjuk district
0,0574
0,1426
not significant
19
Madiun district
0,0463
0,0043
significant
20
Magetan district
0,0478
0,0024
significant
21
Ngawi district
0,0375
0,0654
not significant
22
Bojonegoro district
-0,0762
0,3215
not significant
23
Tuban district
-0,0942
0,1432
not significant
24
Lamongan district
0,0547
0,2432
not significant
25
Gresik district
0,0437
0,0215
significant
26
Bangkalan district
-0,0762
0,2152
not significant
27
Sampang district
0,0853
0,2146
not significant
28
Pamekasan district
0,0585
0,3124
not significant
29
Sumenep district
-0,0938
0,1253
not significant
30
Kediri city
0,0235
0,3543
not significant
31
Blitar city
0,0938
0,2431
not significant
32
Malang city
-0,0564
0,3543
not significant
33
Probolinggo city
0,0842
0,1869
not significant
34
Pasuruan city
0,0543
0,2184
not significant
35
Mojokerto city
-0,0653
0,2158
not significant
36
Madiun city
0,0437
0,0256
not significant
37
Surabaya city
0,0687
0,0064
significant
38
Batu city
-0,0422
0,4452
not significant
Picture 2. LISA Cluster Map of confirmed covid-19 cases in East Java 2020
Spasial Autocorrelation Analysis On Coronavirus
Transmission In East Java 2020
2022
Alda Natasya Hutabarat 74
Picture 3. LISA Cluster Map of confirmed covid-19 cases in East Java 2020
There were 3 areas that showed 0.05 significant. These were Ngawi district, Sidoarjo
district and Madiun city. There were 5 districts that showed 0.01 significants. These are
Madiun district, Magetan district, Ponorogo district, Surabaya city and Gresik district
(Nuraini, Rochminarni, & Hariyani, 2021).
Sidoarjo district, Surabaya city, Gresik district are in high-high quadrans. It means
that these areas have high confirmed cases surrounded by high confirmed cases areas
(Fitriani, Pusdiktasari, & Diartho, 2020). Ponorogo district, Madiun district, Magetan
district, Ngawi district, Madiun city are in low-low quadran which means these areas have
low confirmed cases surrounded by low confirmed cases areas (Fitriani et al., 2020).
Conclusion
By using spatial autoccorelation analysis, Covid-19 confirmed cases in East Java
showed that there were several clustered areas. The analysis resulted Moran’s I = 0,353.
There were 8 areas confirmed to be significantly clustered. There were Ngawi district,
Sidoarjo district, Madiun city with significant p = 0,05 and Maidiun district, Magetan
district, Ponorogo district, Surabaya city, Gresik district with significant p= 0,01. Meaning
there were many significant covid-19 confirmed cases area. Sidoarjo district, Surabaya city,
Gresik district were high risk area surrounded by high risk areas. Ponorogo district, Madiun
district, Magetan district, Ngawi district, Madiun city were low risk areas surrounded by
low risk areas. Which means, the government need to put more attention and prevention in
these area because these area were significantly related with their surrounding areas.
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